Hi,I am using CPS data from IPUMS. I compute monthly total employment by summing compwt (Composite Weight for replicating BLS labor force estimates) for individuals whose empstat is “Armed Forces,” “At work,” or “Has job, not at work” (i.e., empstat == 1 | empstat == 10 | empstat == 12).
I compare the total employment I obtain with the FRED series Employment Level (LNU02000000) – Thousands of Persons, Not Seasonally Adjusted. Employment computed from CPS microdata is about 94% of the FRED value. More surprisingly, this percentage declines from about 95.5% in 2000 to about 92.9% in 2025.
How can I replicate the official FRED employment series using CPS microdata?
I assume your estimates differ by this much because you are including persons who are employed but in the Armed Forces. EMPSTAT = 1 identifies active duty members of the U.S. Armed Forces. These persons are excluded from the civilian noninstitutional population age 16 and older, which is the base group used for employment statistics (refer to the Bureau of Labor Statistics definitions page). When running your analysis by filtering to just EMPSTAT = 10 or 12 and summing by COMPWT, your estimates will match these topline FRED series values. Below is a screenshot of monthly estimates for 2025 that I obtained using the IPUMS CPS Online Analysis Tool.
Thanks, I got your point.
